Daga Janairu zuwa Nuwamba 2021, sabon shigar da ikon daukar hoto a kasar Sin ya kasance 34.8GW, karuwar shekara-shekara na 34.5%.Idan aka yi la'akari da cewa kusan rabin ƙarfin da aka shigar a cikin 2020 zai faru a cikin Disamba, ƙimar haɓakar duk shekarar 2021 zai yi ƙasa da tsammanin kasuwa.Associationungiyar Masana'antar Hoto Voltaic ta China ta saukar da hasashen ƙarfin shigarta na shekara-shekara da 10GW zuwa 45-55GW.
Bayan kololuwar carbon a cikin 2030 da makasudin tsaka-tsakin carbon a cikin 2060 an gabatar da su gaba, duk bangarorin rayuwa gabaɗaya sun yi imanin cewa masana'antar hoto za ta haifar da zagayowar ci gaban zinare mai tarihi, amma hauhawar farashin a cikin 2021 ya haifar da matsanancin yanayin masana'antu.
Daga sama zuwa kasa, sarkar masana'antar photovoltaic ta kasu kusan zuwa hanyoyin haɗin masana'anta guda huɗu: kayan silicon, wafers silicon, sel da kayayyaki, da haɓaka tashar wutar lantarki, jimlar hanyoyin haɗin gwiwa guda biyar.
Bayan farkon 2021, farashin siliki wafers, jigilar tantanin halitta, gilashin da aka ɗora, fim ɗin EVA, jirgin baya, firam da sauran kayan taimako za su ƙaru.An sake tura farashin tsarin zuwa 2 yuan/W shekaru uku da suka gabata a cikin shekara, kuma zai kasance 1.57 a cikin 2020. Yuan/W.A cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata ko makamancin haka, farashin kayan masarufi sun bi ka'idodin ƙasa na ƙasa, kuma koma bayan farashin a cikin 2021 ya hana niyyar shigar da tashoshin wutar lantarki a ƙasa.
A nan gaba, haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar hanyoyin haɗin gwiwa daban-daban a cikin sarkar masana'antar hotovoltaic za ta ci gaba.Tabbatar da tsaro na samar da kayayyaki lamari ne mai mahimmanci ga duk kamfanoni.Canje-canjen farashin zai rage yawan yarda da kuma lalata martabar masana'antar.
Dangane da abubuwan da ake tsammani na farashin sarkar masana'antu da kuma babban tanadin ayyukan cikin gida, Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta Photovoltaic ta yi hasashen cewa sabon ƙarfin hoton da aka shigar a cikin 2022 yana iya yiwuwa ya wuce 75GW.Daga cikin su, yanayin yanayin hoto da aka rarraba yana ɗaukar hankali a hankali, kuma kasuwa ta fara farawa.
Ƙarfafawa ta hanyar maƙasudin carbon-dual-carbon, babban birnin yana yunƙurin ƙara haɓaka hotuna, sabon zagaye na faɗaɗa iya aiki ya fara, wuce gona da iri da rashin daidaituwa har yanzu, kuma yana iya ƙaruwa.Karkashin fada tsakanin sabbin 'yan wasa da tsoffin 'yan wasa, tsarin masana'antar ba makawa ne.
1. Har yanzu akwai kyakkyawan shekara don kayan silicon
A ƙarƙashin hauhawar farashin a cikin 2021, manyan hanyoyin haɗin gwiwa guda huɗu na masana'anta na hotovoltaic ba za su yi daidai ba.
Daga watan Janairu zuwa Satumba, farashin kayan silicon, wafers na siliki, ƙwayoyin hasken rana, da kayayyaki sun karu da 165%, 62.6%, 20%, da 10.8%, bi da bi.Haɓakar farashin ya kasance saboda yawan wadatar kayan siliki da ƙarancin farashi.Kamfanonin wafer na silicon da aka tattara sosai suma sun sami riba a farkon rabin shekara.A cikin rabin na biyu na shekara, ribar da aka samu ta ragu saboda sakin sabon damar samar da kayayyaki da kuma gajiyar kayayyaki masu rahusa;da ikon wuce halin kaka a kan baturi da module ƙare Mahimmanci rauni, da kuma riba sun lalace sosai.
Tare da buɗe sabon zagaye na gasar iya aiki, rabon riba a bangaren masana'antu zai canza a cikin 2022: Kayan siliki na ci gaba da samun riba, gasar wafer silicon tana da zafi, kuma ana sa ran dawo da ribar baturi da na'ura.
A shekara mai zuwa, gabaɗayan samarwa da buƙatun kayan siliki za su kasance daidai da daidaito, kuma cibiyar farashin za ta koma ƙasa, amma wannan hanyar haɗin za ta ci gaba da samun riba mai yawa.A cikin 2021, jimillar wadatar kusan tan 580,000 na kayan silicon da gaske sun yi daidai da buƙatar shigarwar tasha;duk da haka, idan aka kwatanta da ƙarshen wafer na silicon tare da ƙarfin samar da fiye da 300 GW, yana da ƙarancin wadata, wanda ke haifar da al'amuran gaggawa, tarawa, da kuma tayar da farashi a kasuwa.
Kodayake ribar da aka samu na kayan silicon a cikin 2021 sun haifar da haɓaka samarwa, saboda manyan shingen shigarwa da kuma tsayin daka na haɓaka samarwa, rata a cikin ƙarfin samarwa tare da wafers na silicon shekara mai zuwa zai kasance a bayyane.
A ƙarshen 2022, ƙarfin samar da polysilicon na gida zai zama ton 850,000 / shekara.Yin la'akari da ƙarfin samar da ketare, zai iya biyan bukatun da aka shigar na 230GW.A ƙarshen 2022, kamfanoni na Top5 silicon wafer kawai za su ƙara kusan 100GW na sabon ƙarfin, kuma jimillar ƙarfin wafers ɗin silicon zai kasance kusa da 500GW.
Yin la'akari da abubuwan da ba su da tabbas kamar saurin sakin ƙarfin aiki, alamun sarrafa amfani da makamashi guda biyu, da haɓakawa, sabon ƙarfin samar da silicon za a iyakance shi a farkon rabin 2022, mai ƙarfi akan ƙarancin buƙatun ƙasa, da daidaiton wadata da buƙata.Za a magance matsalolin samar da kayayyaki a cikin rabin na biyu na shekara yadda ya kamata.
Dangane da farashin kayan silicon, rabin farko na 2022 zai ragu a hankali, kuma raguwar na iya haɓakawa a cikin rabin na biyu na shekara.Farashin shekara na iya zama 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton.
Kodayake wannan farashin ya faɗi daga shekarar 2021, har yanzu yana kan gabaɗaya a tarihi, kuma ƙimar ikon amfani da ribar manyan masana'antun za su ci gaba da kasancewa mai girma.
Ƙarfafa ta farashin, kusan dukkanin manyan kayan siliki na cikin gida sun riga sun jefar da tsare-tsaren fadada samar da su.Gabaɗaya magana, sake zagayowar samar da kayan aikin siliki yana kusan watanni 18, adadin sakin ƙarfin samarwa yana jinkirin, sassaucin ƙarfin samarwa shima ƙarami ne, kuma farashin farawa da kashewa yana da yawa.Da zarar tasha ta fara daidaitawa, hanyar haɗin kayan silicon za ta faɗi cikin yanayi mara kyau.
Samar da ɗan gajeren lokaci na kayan silicon yana ci gaba da kasancewa mai ƙarfi, kuma ƙarfin samarwa zai ci gaba da fitowa a cikin shekaru 2-3 masu zuwa, kuma samarwa na iya wuce buƙatu a cikin matsakaici da dogon lokaci.
A halin yanzu, shirin samar da kayan aikin da kamfanonin silicon suka sanar ya zarce tan miliyan 3, wanda zai iya biyan bukatun da aka girka na 1,200GW.Idan aka yi la'akari da babbar ƙarfin da ake gini, kyawawan kwanaki na kamfanonin silicon na iya zama kawai 2022.
2. The zamanin high-riba silicon wafers ne a kan
A cikin 2022, ɓangaren wafer na silicon zai ɗanɗana 'ya'yan itace mai ɗaci na haɓakar haɓakar haɓakawa kuma ya zama yanki mafi fa'ida.Riba da tattarawar masana'antu za su ragu, kuma za ta yi bankwana da zamanin babban riba na shekaru biyar.
Ƙunƙarar da maƙasudin carbon-carbon dual-carbon, babban riba, ɓangaren wafer siliki mai ƙarancin ƙima ya fi fifiko ta babban birni.Ribar da ta wuce gona da iri a hankali tana ɓacewa tare da haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa, kuma hauhawar farashin kayan silicon yana haɓaka lalacewar ribar siliki.A cikin rabin na biyu na 2022, tare da sakin sabon ƙarfin samar da kayan siliki, mai yuwuwar yaƙin farashin zai faru akan ƙarshen wafer silicon.A lokacin, riba za ta ragu sosai, kuma wasu ƙarfin samar da layi na biyu da na uku na iya janyewa daga kasuwa.
Tare da sake kiran kayan siliki na sama da farashin wafer, da goyan bayan buƙatu mai ƙarfi na ƙasa don ƙarfin shigar, za a gyara ribar sel na hasken rana da abubuwan haɗin gwiwa a cikin 2022, kuma ba za a sami buƙatar wahala daga tsaga ba.
3. Photovoltaic masana'antu zai samar da wani sabon m wuri mai faɗi
Dangane da abin da aka ambata a sama, ɓangaren mafi raɗaɗi na sarkar masana'antar photovoltaic a cikin 2022 shine mafi girman rarar wafern siliki, waɗanda ƙwararrun masana'antun silicon wafer suka fi yawa;Mafi farin ciki har yanzu kamfanoni ne na kayan siliki, kuma shugabannin za su sami riba mafi yawa.
A halin yanzu, an haɓaka ƙarfin kuɗin kuɗi na kamfanoni na photovoltaic, amma saurin ci gaban fasaha ya haifar da raguwar darajar kadari.A cikin wannan mahallin, haɗin kai tsaye takobi ne mai kaifi biyu, musamman ma a cikin mahaɗin biyu inda batura da kayan silicon sun wuce kima.Haɗin kai hanya ce mai kyau.
Tare da sake fasalin ribar masana'antu da kwararar sabbin 'yan wasa, yanayin gasa na masana'antar photovoltaic a cikin 2022 kuma zai sami manyan canje-canje.
Ƙaddamar da maƙasudin carbon-carbon dual-carbon, ƙarin sababbin masu shiga suna zuba jari a masana'antar hoto, wanda ke kawo ƙalubale ga kamfanoni na gargajiya na gargajiya kuma yana iya haifar da canje-canje na asali a cikin tsarin masana'antu.
Wannan shi ne karo na farko a cikin tarihi cewa babban birnin kan iyaka ya shiga masana'anta na hoto a kan irin wannan babban sikelin.Sabbin masu shiga koyaushe suna da fa'idar farkon farawa, kuma tsofaffin 'yan wasa ba tare da ƙwaƙƙwaran gasa ba na yiwuwa a kawar da su cikin sauƙi ta sabbin masu shigowa masu wadata.
4. Tashar wutar lantarki da aka raba ba ta zama abin tallafi ba
Tashar wutar lantarki ita ce hanyar haɗin yanar gizo na photovoltaics.A cikin 2022, tsarin ƙarfin da aka shigar na tashar wutar lantarki zai kuma nuna sabbin abubuwa.
Za a iya raba tsire-tsire na wutar lantarki na Photovoltaic zuwa nau'i biyu: tsakiya da rarrabawa.An raba na ƙarshe zuwa masana'antu da kasuwanci da amfanin gida.Yin fa'ida daga haɓakar manufofin da manufofin tallafin 3 cents a kowace kilowatt-hour na wutar lantarki, ƙarfin shigar mai amfani ya karu;yayin da ikon da aka sanyawa a tsakiya ya ragu saboda karuwar farashin, yuwuwar iyawar da aka rarraba a cikin 2021 za ta kai matsayi mai girma, kuma za a ƙara yawan adadin ƙarfin da aka shigar.Super tsakiya na farko a tarihi.
Daga watan Janairu zuwa Oktoba 2021, ikon da aka rarraba ya kasance 19GW, wanda ya kai kusan kashi 65% na jimlar da aka girka a daidai wannan lokacin, wanda amfanin gida ya karu da 106% a shekara zuwa 13.6GW, wanda shine babban tushen samar da wutar lantarki. sabon shigar iya aiki.
Na dogon lokaci, kasuwar hoto da aka rarraba ta hanyar kamfanoni masu zaman kansu ne suka bunkasa saboda raguwa da ƙananan girmansa.Ƙarfin shigar da ƙarfin da aka rarraba na photovoltaic a cikin ƙasar ya wuce 500GW.Duk da haka, saboda rashin fahimtar manufofin wasu ƙananan hukumomi da kamfanoni da kuma rashin tsara tsarin gabaɗaya, ana yawan samun rudani a ainihin ayyuka.Bisa kididdigar da kungiyar masana'antun daukar hoto ta kasar Sin ta nuna, an sanar da ma'aunin manyan ayyukan tushe da suka kai fiye da 60GW a kasar Sin, kuma jimillar jimillar tura wutar lantarkin a larduna 19 (yankuna da birane) ya kai kimanin 89.28 GW.
Bisa ga wannan, ƙaddamar da tsammanin raguwar farashin sarkar masana'antu, Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta China Photovoltaic Masana'antu ta yi hasashen cewa sabon ƙarfin da aka shigar a cikin 2022 zai kasance fiye da 75GW.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-06-2022